The Invisible Hand of Prediction

Algorithmic predictions steer markets, drive consumption, shape communities and alter life trajectories. However, the theory and practice of machine learning have long neglected the often-invisible causal forces of prediction. A recent conceptual framework, called performative prediction, draws attention to the fundamental difference between learning from a population and steering a population through predictions.

In this lecture, after covering some emerging insights on performative prediction, Moritz Hardt will turn to an application of performativity to the question of power in digital economies. Traditional economic concepts struggle with identifying anti-competitive patterns in digital platforms, not least due to the difficulty of defining the market. Next, he will introduce the notion of performative power that sidesteps the complexity of market definition and directly measures how much a firm can benefit from steering consumer behavior. Finally, he will discuss the normative implications of high performative power, its connections to measures of market power in economics, and its relationship to ongoing antitrust debates.

To attend this in-person event, you will need to register in advance and provide:

● Acceptable proof of vaccination (vaccine card/certificate, a copy or photo of vaccine card/certificate or electronic NYS Excelsior Pass or NJ Docket Pass)
● Photo ID
● Eventbrite ticket confirmation email with QR code
● Simons Foundation Health Screening Questionnaire approval email

Guests are expected to complete these requirements each time they visit the Simons Foundation and entrance will not be granted without this documentation.

On-site registration will not be permitted. Walk-in entry will be denied.