Publications

In the early phases of growth, resurgent epidemic waves of SARS-CoV-2 incidence have been characterised by localised outbreaks. Therefore, understanding the geographic dispersion of emerging variants at the start of an outbreak is key for situational public health awareness. Using telecoms data, we derived mobility networks describing the movement patterns between local authorities in England, which we have used to inform the spatial structure of a Bayesian BYM2 model. Surge testing interventions can result in spatio-temporal sampling bias, and we account for this by extending the BYM2 model to include a random effect for each timepoint in a given area. Simulated-scenario modelling and real-world analyses of each variant that became dominant in England were conducted using our BYM2 model at local authority level in England. Simulated datasets were created using a stochastic metapopulation model, with the transmission rates between different areas parameterised using telecoms mobility data. Different scenarios were constructed to reproduce real-world spatial dispersion patterns that could prove challenging to inference, and we used these scenarios to understand the performance characteristics of the BYM2 model. The model performed better than unadjusted test positivity in all the simulation-scenarios, and in particular when sample sizes were small, or data was missing for geographical areas. Through the analyses of emerging variant transmission across England, we found a reduction in the early growth phase geographic clustering of later dominant variants as England became more interconnected from early 2022 and public health interventions were reduced. We have also shown the recent increased geographic spread and dominance of variants with similar mutations in the receptor binding domain, which may be indicative of convergent evolution of SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Large language models based on transformers have achieved great empirical successes. However, as they are deployed more widely, there is a growing need to better understand their internal mechanisms in order to make them more reliable. These models appear to store vast amounts of knowledge from their training data, and to adapt quickly to new information provided in their context or prompt. We study how transformers balance these two types of knowledge by considering a synthetic setup where tokens are generated from either global or context-specific bigram distributions. By a careful empirical analysis of the training process on a simplified two-layer transformer, we illustrate the fast learning of global bigrams and the slower development of an “induction head” mechanism for the in-context bigrams. We highlight the role of weight matrices as associative memories, provide theoretical insights on how gradients enable their learning during training, and study the role of data-distributional properties.

We study gradient flow on the multi-index regression problem for high-dimensional Gaussian data. Multi-index functions consist of a composition of an unknown low-rank linear projection and an arbitrary unknown, low-dimensional link function. As such, they constitute a natural template for feature learning in neural networks. We consider a two-timescale algorithm, whereby the low-dimensional link function is learnt with a non-parametric model infinitely faster than the subspace parametrizing the low-rank projection. By appropriately exploiting the matrix semigroup structure arising over the subspace correlation matrices, we establish global convergence of the resulting Grassmannian population gradient flow dynamics, and provide a quantitative description of its associated `saddle-to-saddle' dynamics. Notably, the timescales associated with each saddle can be explicitly characterized in terms of an appropriate Hermite decomposition of the target link function. In contrast with these positive results, we also show that the related

Many stellarator coil design problems are plagued by multiple minima, where the locally optimal coil sets can sometimes vary substantially in performance. As a result, solving a coil design problem a single time with a local optimization algorithm is usually insufficient and better optima likely do exist. To address this problem, we propose a global optimization algorithm for the design of stellarator coils and outline how to apply box constraints to the physical positions of the coils. The algorithm has a global exploration phase that searches for interesting regions of design space and is followed by three local optimization algorithms that search in these interesting regions (a "global-to-local" approach). The first local algorithm (phase I), following the globalization phase, is based on near-axis expansions and finds stellarator coils that optimize for quasisymmetry in the neighborhood of a magnetic axis. The second local algorithm (phase II) takes these coil sets and optimizes them for nested flux surfaces and quasisymmetry on a toroidal volume. The final local algorithm (phase III) polishes these configurations for an accurate approximation of quasisymmetry. Using our global algorithm, we study the trade-off between coil length, aspect ratio, rotational transform, and quality of quasi-axisymmetry. The database of stellarators, which comprises almost 140,000 coil sets, is available online and is called QUASR, for "QUAsi-symmetric Stellarator Repository".

To check the accuracy of Bayesian computations, it is common to use rank-based simulation-based calibration (SBC). However, SBC has drawbacks: The test statistic is somewhat ad-hoc, interactions are difficult to examine, multiple testing is a challenge, and the resulting p-value is not a divergence metric. We propose to replace the marginal rank test with a flexible classification approach that learns test statistics from data. This measure typically has a higher statistical power than the SBC rank test and returns an interpretable divergence measure of miscalibration, computed from classification accuracy. This approach can be used with different data generating processes to address likelihood-free inference or traditional inference methods like Markov chain Monte Carlo or variational inference. We illustrate an automated implementation using neural networks and statistically-inspired features, and validate the method with numerical and real data experiments.

The paper continues the analysis, started in [1] (Part I,arXiv:2302.04353), of the model open wave-guide problem defined by 2 semi-infinite, rectangular wave-guides meeting along a common perpendicular line. In Part I we reduce the solution of the physical problem to a transmission problem rephrased as a system of integral equations on the common perpendicular line. In this part we show that solutions of the integral equations introduced in Part I have asymptotic expansions, if the data allows it. Using these expansions we show that the solutions to the PDE found in each half space satisfy appropriate outgoing radiation conditions. In Part III we show that these conditions imply uniqueness of the solution to the PDE as well as uniqueness for our system of integral equations.

We introduce a layer potential representation for the solution of the transmission problem defined by two dielectric channels, or open wave-guides, meeting along the straight-line interface, $\{x_1=0\}.$ The main observation is that the outgoing fundamental solution for the operator $\Delta +k_1^2+q(x_2),$ acting on functions defined in ${\mathbb R}^2,$ is easily constructed using the Fourier transform in the $x_1$-variable and the elementary theory of ordinary differential equations. These fundamental solutions can then be used to represent the solution to the transmission problem in half planes. The transmission boundary conditions lead to integral equations along the intersection of the half planes, which, in our normalization, is the $x_2$-axis. We show that, in appropriate Banach spaces, these integral equations are Fredholm equations of second kind, which are therefore generically solvable. We analyze the representation of the guided modes in our formulation.

We propose a simple and efficient method to calculate the electronic self-energy in dynamical mean-field theory (DMFT), addressing a numerical instability often encountered when solving the Dyson equation. Our approach formulates the Dyson equation as a constrained optimization problem with a simple quadratic objective. The constraints on the self-energy are obtained via direct measurement of the leading order terms of its asymptotic expansion within a continuous time quantum Monte Carlo framework, and the use of the compact discrete Lehmann representation of the self-energy yields an optimization problem in a modest number of unknowns. We benchmark our method for the non-interacting Bethe lattice, as well as DMFT calculations for both model systems and \textit{ab-initio} applications.

This paper concerns the convergence of empirical measures in high dimensions. We propose a new class of probability metrics and show that under such metrics, the convergence is free of the curse of dimensionality (CoD). Such a feature is critical for high-dimensional analysis and stands in contrast to classical metrics (e.g., the Wasserstein metric). The proposed metrics fall into the category of integral probability metrics, for which we specify criteria of test function spaces to guarantee the property of being free of CoD. Examples of the selected test function spaces include the reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, Barron space, and flow-induced function spaces. Three applications of the proposed metrics are presented: 1. The convergence of empirical measure in the case of random variables; 2. The convergence of n-particle system to the solution to McKean–Vlasov stochastic differential equation; 3. The construction of an ɛ-Nash equilibrium for a homogeneous n-player game by its mean-field limit. As a byproduct, we prove that, given a distribution close to the target distribution measured by our metric and a certain representation of the target distribution, we can generate a distribution close to the target one in terms of the Wasserstein metric and relative entropy. Overall, we show that the proposed class of metrics is a powerful tool to analyze the convergence of empirical measures in high dimensions without CoD.

In this paper, we consider the inverse acoustic obstacle problem for sound-soft star-shaped obstacles in two dimensions wherein the boundary of the obstacle is determined from measurements of the scattered field at a collection of receivers outside the object. One of the standard approaches for solving this problem is to reformulate it as an optimization problem: finding the boundary of the domain that minimizes the L2 distance between computed values of the scattered field and the given measurement data. The optimization problem is computationally challenging since the local set of convexity shrinks with increasing frequency and results in an increasing number of local minima in the vicinity of the true solution. In many practical experimental settings, low frequency measurements are unavailable due to limitations of the experimental setup or the sensors used for measurement. Thus, obtaining a good initial guess for the optimization problem plays a vital role in this environment. We present a neural network warm-start approach for solving the inverse scattering problem, where an initial guess for the optimization problem is obtained using a trained neural network. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method with several numerical examples. For high frequency problems, this approach outperforms traditional iterative methods such as Gauss-Newton initialized without any prior (i.e., initialized using a unit circle), or initialized using the solution of a direct method such as the linear sampling method. The algorithm remains robust to noise in the scattered field measurements and also converges to the true solution for limited aperture data. However, the number of training samples required to train the neural network scales exponentially in frequency and the complexity of the obstacles considered. We conclude with a discussion of this phenomenon and potential directions for future research.